Whether you are managing a long / short hedge fund for absolute return or a mutual fund designed to outpace a specific index, today's markets offer challenges unlike any seen in decades. Not like the 1990's, the equity markets from 2000 forward have been a revolving door of bull and bear trends, similar in many respects to the periods from 1906 to 1920 and from 1968 to 1982. Investors who ignored the changing trends have been left with subpar if not negative returns, while the portfolio managers nimble enough to capture the changing trends have experienced some of the best performances of their career.
Our mission, and what we do best, is to keep our subscribers on the right side of the market and to consistently be among the first to identify important changes in trend. We accomplish this mission with a unique insight formed by an in depth understanding of market history and a series of proprietary indicators designed to look deep inside every major sector for evidence of changes in supply and demand.
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Our market calls:
- 1999 end of the bull market: "We are on the last legs of a secular bull market as the 18 year up cycle should end in 2000. Whether or not the next 18 years will look like the period from 1968-1982 or the period post 1930 will depend on the strength of inflation or deflationary forces in the decades ahead."
- 2002 low: August 01, 2002 "My target for the S&P is between 740 and 700, the DJIA I expect to bottom below 7400. This low should mark the 4-year cycle low in the major U.S. equity markets." September 15, 2002 "There are two potential pivot dates that I am working with. These are points in time where a change in price direction is likely. Those dates are September 24 (+/- one day) and October 10 (+/- one day). It would not surprise me if one of these dates turned out to be the next major low.”
- 2007 market top: 2007 Anatomy of a Bull Market High
- 2009 market low: February 18, 2009 "In a study of major bear markets back to 1960 we find that approximately 40% of all multi month bear market rallies started during the month of March. March is second only to October as the month most favorable to the formation of market lows. The S&P 500 remains more than 20% below its 200-day average and buying volume has been rising since late January, showing that investors have started to accumulate positions. Considering these factors, the probabilities favor that a low in March will be the start of a multi-month bear market rally or possibly a new bull market."
- 2009 US Dollar Index: Missed by a holiday -- we published two time windows for a major multi-month low on the US Dollar; October 20th -26th and November 20th - 24th. The US Dollar Index posted its low on Thanksgiving day, November 26 with the US markets closed. While 97% of market professionals were bearish the dollar, we called it as a multi month low.
- 2009 Interest Rates: In October, 2009, when a majority of analysts were calling for lower US interest rates, we identified a bear trap in yields with the potential for yields to eventually match their 2009 high.